How To Place a Penalty Awarded Bet
Although betting on football has been around for decades, penalty betting is a relatively new addition to sportsbooks. With it gaining real popularity during the 2018 World Cup when the Video Assistant Referee was introduced, it is now a market that is here to stay. The VAR is firmly a part of the modern game and the technology offers the ability to award more penalties than before. It also prov...
Although betting on football has been around for decades, penalty betting is a relatively new addition to sportsbooks. With it gaining real popularity during the 2018 World Cup when the Video Assistant Referee was introduced, it is now a market that is here to stay. The VAR is firmly a part of the modern game and the technology offers the ability to award more penalties than before. It also provides you with the opportunity to boost your profits.
You can bet not only on the awarding of penalties but also on their scoring and missing. This ability to predict what a referee or star striker will do has only made football wagering more enjoyable. We will offer you penalty betting tips to form a successful strategy alongside helpful stats such as which leagues have the highest penalty average.
Most Popular Penalty Betting Markets
When it comes to a penalty awarded bet, there are many different markets to choose from. These include whether one is scored or not or if one will be awarded at all. Add whether both teams will score a penalty, multiple penalties given in a game or even the opening goal comes from 12 yards, and this market is not perhaps as simple as your first thought.
Thankfully, this is where we step. We are going to run through each of the primary penalty betting markets by following the most important football betting rules.
Penalty to be awarded Yes/No
In this market, you are betting on whether a penalty will be awarded to either team during a game. When looking at last season's Premier League statis...
In this market, you are betting on whether a penalty will be awarded to either team during a game. When looking at last season's Premier League statistics, for example, this outcome would occur once every four matches. This means the odds of a referee pointing to the spot are much higher than no penalties. However, if you can make the right decisions at the right time, your penalty betting strategy could be rather profitable.
Penalty to be scored Yes/No
When a referee does point to the penalty spot, a new market comes into play. Here you must decide if a goal is subsequently scored from 12 yards. With...
When a referee does point to the penalty spot, a new market comes into play. Here you must decide if a goal is subsequently scored from 12 yards. With 81% of 2021/22's Premier League penalties being slotted home, the striker will always be favoured over the goalkeeper in this situation. Therefore, the odds for yes are usually a lot shorter than no in this penalty betting market.
First goal from the penalty spot
In order to enhance your football betting options and their meaning, you must learn that a penalty awarded bet is whether the first goal of the gam...
In order to enhance your football betting options and their meaning, you must learn that a penalty awarded bet is whether the first goal of the game will be scored from the spot. A simple yes or no choice once again, and with the majority of goals coming from open play. However, even though the odds on this market will always be very high, you should steer clear as it will not be profitable in the long run.
Home and away penalty goals
One other way to make penalty betting more interesting is by backing both teams to score from 12 yards. Although this can be considered more of a...
One other way to make penalty betting more interesting is by backing both teams to score from 12 yards. Although this can be considered more of a rarity in football, there are occasions when such an outcome occurs. You can do all the research you want, but, in reality, the probability of this bet coming through is very low. This is why we only suggest small fun wagers.
Multiple Penalties in a Game
While for those who keep a keen eye on referee behaviour, this is the penalty betting option for you. Because if you can find the official who award...
While for those who keep a keen eye on referee behaviour, this is the penalty betting option for you. Because if you can find the official who awards the most penalties on average, there is every chance that two or more could be awarded in a single game. Should that be the case and you have backed this outcome, that is where your bet becomes a winner. Multiple penalties is a market that can affect the total cards in a game and especially yellow card betting.
Penalty Stats In Top Leagues
Best Strategies to Place A Winning Penalty Awarded Bet
Like all other markets, doing your research beforehand is highly recommended. If this is part of your penalty betting strategy, it will help your attempt at making long-term profits. Because the more you know about the markets, the smarter bets you will make; ergo, you have a better chance of winning. In this section, we are going to highlight the key aspects to consider introducing the best football betting techniques to win via penalties.
Penalty Probability
Perhaps the most important thing when building your strategy is how often penalties are awarded in each competition. If you know a league has less on average than another, it may be one to avoid. For example, here is how the average penalties per game differed across the major leagues during the 2023/24 season.
As you can see, there are more penalties on average in Serie A and La Liga, which is certainly something to take into account when looking to bet on penalties.
| League | Matches | Penalties | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 380 | 142 | 0.37 |
| La Liga | 380 | 133 | 0.35 |
| Ligue 1 | 380 | 122 | 0.32 |
| Bundesliga | 306 | 84 | 0.27 |
| Premier League | 380 | 103 | 0.27 |
Follow the referees
Another thing to consider before placing a penalty awarded bet is the behaviour of referees. Are they more likely to award them, or do they prepare to let the game flow with fewer interruptions? Knowing the answer to this can also help from a strategy-building point of view. For example, here are the stats from the 2023/24 Premier League season:
| Referee | Matches | Pen Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Darren England | 15 | 0.53 |
| Robert Jones | 12 | 0.42 |
| Kevin Friend | 18 | 0.39 |
Here, we can see the top three referees when it comes to average penalties per game in charge. This means when this trio oversees an EPL match, the opportunity of a penalty being awarded increases. While to offer a comparison, here are the top three for the 2023/24 La Liga season:
| Referee | Matches | Pen Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Gil Manzano | 20 | 0.50 |
| Valentin Pizarro Gomez | 18 | 0.50 |
| R. deB. Bengoetxea | 19 | 0.47 |
As you can see, the highest average is in the Premier League, the rate of penalties is more consistent in La Liga. When either of the three above is in charge, they award a foul in the area once every other game.
Prefer matches with VAR
The introduction of VAR in the past few years has meant that penalty betting has become even more popular, especially in leagues that have introduced the technology. VAR betting is prominent among players because it usually leads to more penalties being awarded, which is highlighted in the table below.
| League | Matches | Penalties | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga 2017/18 - No VAR | 380 | 113 | 0.29 |
| La Liga 2018/19 - With VAR | 380 | 130 | 0.34 |
Team motivation
When looking at penalty betting tips, whether a team has lots at stake before the game is crucial. For example, they may be chasing goals in order to...
When looking at penalty betting tips, whether a team has lots at stake before the game is crucial. For example, they may be chasing goals in order to avoid relegation or win the league. This, in turn, could lead to a more aggressive brand of football, and when there is aggressiveness on the field, the award of a penalty is never too far away.
Performance gap
The last part of your penalty betting strategy should be the gap in quality between the two teams. If there is a huge gulf, it could mean plenty of at...
The last part of your penalty betting strategy should be the gap in quality between the two teams. If there is a huge gulf, it could mean plenty of attacking football for the better side. This means if there are plenty of attacking opportunities for the better of the two teams, it will also increase the likelihood of a winning penalty awarded bet and this is something else that you should take into consideration.
A perfect example of this would be when Manchester City play against Norwich in the Premier League. With City known for their attacking brand of football, this would certainly lead to more possession in the opposition penalty area. This provides more opportunities for the Premier League giants to be fouled in the box.
Frequently Asked Questions
Betting on penalties has only increased in popularity since the 2018 World Cup, but not all bookies offer odds on them. However, the biggest sportsbooks certainly do, which means they are always ready to take on your wagers in this market.
Like any betting market, there is always scope for it to be profitable and betting on penalties is no different. As always, if you do your research beforehand and have a good penalty betting strategy in place, there is no reason why you cannot make money from it.
If you take a data-driven approach to your penalty betting strategy, it should increase your chances of it being successful. With the statistics offering you far greater insight, you can make smarter decisions when making your bets.
During the 2021/22 Premier League season, 103 penalties were awarded. Of these, 83 were scored, a conversion rate of 81.5%, or to make it simpler, for every ten penalties taken, eight were scored.
Although a penalty can be awarded for a foul or handball during a football match, it can also be used as a method to decide the winner of a game. Because in tournament football, a penalty shootout can be required to break any previous deadlock. If a tie is drawn after 120 minutes (assuming that extra time has also been played), each team will take five alternate penalties, with the team scoring the most being declared the overall winner. If there is still a draw after five penalties each, the two teams move into sudden death and if team a scores their penalty and team b does not or vice versa, that team would subsequently be declared the winner.
